After nine consecutive quarters of measuring the Transport and Logistics Confidence Index (ICTYL), which brings together nearly 140 leaders from these sectors, it is obtained that the first quarter of 2020 offered the lowest record in the history of this measurement.
For the first quarter of 2020 (1Q20), the ICTYL stood at 63.7 points, this represented the lowest level reached since 3Q19, when it stood at 74.9 points, and then recovered towards the end of 2019.
This exercise carried out by the Business Intelligence area of Grupo T21 (BI T21) gathers the perspectives and results of businessmen and managers from various sectors of transport and logistics, who represent the protagonists of this market.
To the express question about how would you assess the progress of the business during the quarter that ended ?, that is, in 1Q20, 71% of the respondents rated it as favorable, while 29% rated it as unfavorable.
Meanwhile, when asked about the prospect of the pace of their business for 2Q20, 94% of the entrepreneurs and managers who participated in the survey, ranked it as unfavorable, the highest range registered.
Yesterday the International Monetary Fund (IMF) joined various analysis houses in its negative perspective for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Mexico, placing it at -6.6% for this year; while the growth of the global economy placed it at -3%, very far from the previous 3% level.
Another indicator that is in adverse terrain and that shows what happened in the transport and logistics sector, is that of jobs generated before the IMSS, where last March affiliates reported growth of only 0.7% per year, their lowest rate since the 2009 crisis, losing almost 131 thousand jobs in the month.
Obviously, when inquiring about the factors that threaten the growth of the companies represented in the survey, 22.6% identified COVID-19 (coronavirus) as the main cause, the rhythm of the national economy 16.6%, insecurity 14.3%, political uncertainty 12% and weak demand with 11.5%, as the main ones.
Responses on how is COVID-19 affecting ?, 36% identify that it will impact sales, 20% the closure of plants, 18% the decrease in loads and the same percentage the interruption of supply chains, the last factor is the decrease in installed capacity with 6 percent.