This firm assured in an analysis note that the demand for industrial spaces in the country barely had an annual growth of 1.15% during the first quarter of 2020, this by adding a gross absorption of 928 thousand 188 square meters (m2) of net area profitable (ANR). Likewise, he reported that the markets of Mexico City (CDMX), Monterrey, Guadalajara, Tijuana and Querétaro concentrated 80% of the gross absorption. CDMX led the absorption with 263 thousand 951 m2, followed by Monterrey and Guadalajara with 186 thousand 565 m2 and 121 thousand 418 m2, respectively. Sergio Mireles, Founding Partner of Datoz, pointed out that typically the first months of the year are anemic in gross absorption, but the boost in logistics helped to maintain the demand for industrial spaces in the Central region, while the Bajío-Occidente and the Northeast benefited from the ratification of the Treaty between Mexico, United States and Canada (T-MEC). Likewise, Mireles reported that the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic (coronavirus) are not yet reflected in the first quarter of the year, due to real estate processes, but estimated that in the following quarters there could be effects on real estate fundamentals.
The Center was the region of the country with the highest gross absorption, accumulating 267 thousand 716 m2, driven by the CDMX market that added 263 thousand 951 m2 for logistics activities. However, the low absorption in Hidalgo and Puebla caused the region to have an annual drop of 10.78% during the first quarter in this indicator.
The availability rate in the region was 6.37%, while CDMX reached 7.40% - the maximum rate for this market. This is due to the weak absorption in recent quarters and the increase in inventory, which in the region reached 16.8 million m2 and in CDMX 13.0 million m2.
Only CDMX had construction starts in the region with 238 thousand 578 m2, which meant an annual growth of 61.36%.
The Bajío-Occidente region had an increase in its gross absorption of 40.27%, adding 267 thousand 716 m2, of which 121 thousand 418 m2 were demanded, mainly, for logistics activities in Guadalajara. While Querétaro had a gross absorption of 80 thousand 961 m2 and Guanajuato 60 thousand 803 m2, both markets had a recovery due to the ratification of the T-MEC.
The availability rate in the region was 6.30%, while in Guadalajara it was 6.30%, in Querétaro 7.25% and in Guanajuato 8.02 percent.
The Bajío-Occidente region had construction starts for 119 thousand 393 m2, 62.49% less than the same quarter of 2019. Querétaro was the market with the most construction starts with 62 thousand 091 m2, followed by Guadalajara with 38 thousand 483 m2.
The region closed the first quarter of 2020 with an inventory of 21.6 million m2. Guanajuato is the largest market with 5.9 million m2.
The Northeast region had a gross absorption of 234 thousand 032 m2, which represented an annual growth of 23.27%. Monterrey was the market with the highest demand, since it accumulated 186 thousand 565 m2 for manufacturing activities, mainly. The availability rate of the region was 6.86% and that of Monterrey stood at 7.82 percent. The Northeast had an increase of 33.13% in its beginnings of construction, adding 159 thousand 660 m2, of which 131 thousand 473 m2 were in Monterrey. The inventory of the region in the first quarter of the year was 23.2 million m2. Monterrey is the largest market in the region and the second in the country with 11.5 million m2.
The Northwest region closed the first quarter of 2020 with a gross absorption of 160,383 m2, 32.82% lower than the same period in 2019. Tijuana was the market with the highest absorption, with 93,999 m2 for manufacturing activities, mainly. The region's availability rate was the tightest in the country with 5.43%. Tijuana's rate was 5.05%, while Ciudad Juárez's was 6.52 percent. The Norponiente had construction starts for 42 thousand 015 m2, which meant a fall of 77.18% annually and was the lowest figure in the country. Ciudad Juárez was the market with the most construction starts with 36,356 m2. The region's inventory closed the first quarter with 19.3 million m2. Tijuana is the largest market with 6.6 million m2, followed by Ciudad Juárez with 6.2 million m2. The regions of the industrial real estate market are divided into Centro (Mexico City, Hidalgo, Puebla), Bajío-Occidente (Aguascalientes, Guadalajara, Guanajuato, Querétaro, San Luis Potosí), Northeast (La Laguna, Matamoros, Monterrey, Nuevo Laredo, Reynosa and Saltillo) and Norponiente (Chihuahua, Ciudad Juárez, Hermosillo, Mexicali, Nogales and Tijuana).